Getting Both Barrels

Bush hit the road this week, touting our economy and paying heed to the topic of high gas prices for a change. Gas prices are on the mind of basically everyone, because these increased prices are a very “in your face” increase that can’t be ignored or denied away by political spin. The average price of a gallon has gone up 88 cents over the last year, hitting a national average of $2.80 at the time I write this and expected to rise another 5% before the summer is over.

This is killing the Administration. Unemployment is down and the stock market is doing relatively well, but gas prices and our unbelievable deficit have finally struck a nerve with most Americans. Good. As Winona would have said in 1994, sometimes reality bites. I personally think it's good that sometimes the consumer actually feels the fiscal fangs strike home. “Why don’t Americans have a better view of the Economy?” they ask. Simple answer: We can’t afford anything. Medical insurance has gone up. Gas prices are up. We’re getting nickeled and dimed from every direction and hey, guess what, the company is downsizing your regular increase this year and you should be happy, at least your job wasn’t outsourced to India!

Some of Bush’s recommendations include:
—Ordering the EPA to temporarily suspend clean-burning gasoline rules
Great! First he advocates drilling in Alaska (every Texas oilman-turned-politico’s dream) and now he’s found another environmental law to repeal in the name of lower consumer prices. Brilliant!

While we’re on the subject of Alaskan drilling, here’s a good quote:

“A recent report from the U.S. Department of Energy’s own Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that even 20 years down the road, when Arctic Refuge oil would be at or near peak production, gas prices would only be affected by about a penny per gallon. The United States sits on just 3 % of the world's known petroleum reserves. Government estimates indicate that there is less than a year’s supply of oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and even the oil industry admits it would take 10 years to make it to US markets.”
[Statement of Carl Pope, Executive Director of Sierra Club, April 27th]

—Suspending the summer deposits to the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve
During the 2004 campaign, Bush chided Kerry for this suggestion, and he’s also criticized Clinton in the past for touching the SPR, but now it’s okay. Good thing Bush isn’t a flip-flopper.
Here’s a great blast from the past. Only $2 a gallon? Holy crap!
Here is another.

—Launching aggressive efforts against price gouging, headlined by a Federal Trade Commission investigation in conjunction with the Justice and Energy departments
Back in May 2004 ten Democratic governors sent a joint letter to Bush, that said, “We strongly encourage you to direct the Department of Energy to conduct a comprehensive investigation of the entire gasoline pricing structure, the profits currently enjoyed by the industry and the cost being passed on to consumers,” The letter was signed by the governors of Arizona, Iowa, West Virginia, Michigan, Kansas, Missouri, Washington, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Maine. The letter was ignored.

Bush has steadfastly rejected a “windfall tax” for the large oil companies. Hmm.

This past January, Texas-based Exxon Mobil posted the highest quarterly and annual profits of any U.S. company in history: $10.71 billion for the fourth quarter of 2005 and $36.13 billion for the whole year. Exxon Mobil Corp. also made an $8.4 billion profit in the first quarter of 2006—a 7 percent increase over last year.
Don’t worry about Exxon’s biggest rivals however; ConocoPhillips announced record profits this week. On Friday Chevron announced $4 billion in profits for its first quarter, a mere 49 percent increase. Combined, the three oil companies earned $15.7 billion during the first three months of the year.

Looking back at the profit increases from 2004–2005 isn’t much better (for the consumer anyway):
Exxon Mobil profit increase—218%
ConocoPhillips profit increase—145%
Shell profit increase—51%
ChevronTexaco profit increase—39%
BP profit increase—35%

Going back even further:
In 1999, U.S. oil refiners made a 22.8 cent profit per gallon of gas.
In 2004, U.S. oil refiners made a 40.8 cent profit per gallon of gas—an 80 percent jump.
[1988-2003 Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Marketing Annual, annual reports and 2004-Energy Information Administration, Petroluem Marketing Montly (April 2005)]

Houston, we have a problem here! These guys are having a riot.

In fairness, Exxon Mobil and other oil companies post huge exploration expenditures in the search for new oil supplies. But isn’t this just good business for them too? Let us not forget that oil companies receive tax subsidies from the federal government either.
Per Edmund L. Andrews, NY Times, March 27, 2006:
“But last month, the Bush administration confirmed that it expected the government to waive about $7 billion in royalties over the next five years, even though the industry incentive was expressly conceived of for times when energy prices were low. And that number could quadruple to more than $28 billion if a lawsuit filed last week challenging one of the program's remaining restrictions proves successful.
‘The big lie about this whole program is that it doesn't cost anything,’ said Representative Edward J. Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat who tried to block its expansion last July. ‘'Taxpayers are being asked to provide huge subsidies to oil companies to produce oil—it's like subsidizing a fish to swim.’”

About a third of the oil consumed in the United States is drilled domestically, about 150 million barrels a month, give or take, and they shouldn’t be any more expensive to extract in 2006 than in 2005. Yet it seems all the oil costs are being based on the Middle East price-per-barrel model. So, up goes the price for domestic oil too, a pretty good bargain.

Brian Lehrer of WNYC recently asked an oil business expert on his show why, if oil companies were simply raising their prices to keep up with their own per-barrel costs, why the increasing windfalls? A satisfactory answer wasn’t forthcoming, at least to this listener. (Brian probably felt the same way, as he immediately repeated his question and unsuccessfully tried a second time.)

Our country is at war. The American people have been asked to sacrifice—perhaps not enough in some ways—but government revenues that could have gone to cancer research or medical care for the helpless are being spent in Iraq. Moreover, our soldiers are making the ultimate sacrifice every day. It’s high time the oil companies got with the program and kicked in their share.

Poker Safari

Last night, after no less than three aborted outings, I finally got in some cards with the poker gang at work. I missed playing a few hands of cards, and these guys didn’t seem too hardcore, most of them anyway, so I figured I was on equal ground.

We were to meet at Tonka’s place, on the cliffs across from New York City. I dreaded the trip, as I’ve always found that area in near the New Jersey-side entrance to the GW Bridge to be confusing as hell, but I was free to play and didn’t want to cancel again so off I went.

I spare the gentle reader the tale of my reaching Tonka’s apartment, as I did indeed get very, very lost. I blew about a half-hour fumbling around River Road and finally found the steep, winding road up to Tonka’s. When I arrived the guys—Tonka, Steve, and Rob—were gathered around a thick hardwood table gobbling down cooling pizza (pepperoni, of course). Chips and two decks were already out on the table, as was a frightening stack of greenbacks (“change money” set out by our host that largely went unused except as a mood prop).

All personalities were represented: Tonka, a serious online Hold ‘em addict who rarely folds and bets big, Rob, educated on neighborhood poker and a fairly tight player, and Steve, our resident wildman and “let’s try this game” player. This was going to be good, worth my miserable trip there.

We broke out the cold brews and soon set about the task at hand, each dropping $30 onto the table and receiving our chips: red worth $2 each, blue worth $1, and white worth 50 pips. The stack looked very small.

My fears were soon confirmed as we started out with a round of Texas Hold ‘em. I’ve never been particularly good at the game, although I understand the basic strategy. Tonight my main tactic was simple: Fold early, Fold often. I wasn’t about to let an Ace sucker me into sticking around with an Ace–seven coupling or what-have-you. I needn’t have worried—my first pull was a mighty 3–5. I folded so quick a sonic boom echoed over the table. A man can’t even bluff that bad a hand with a straight face. Subsequent hands were no better: deuce–4, 4–10, …where were the good hands the guys got on TV anyway?!?

My steady decline continued until I considered holding a Congressional vote to raise my debt ceiling. I only had about 4 chips left, and had to constantly make “chip change” by betting with larger-denomination chips and pulling back 50-centers. As Daffy would say, “How humiliating!” I got out my wallet and gingerly pulled out a ten-spot. Barry, my old radio station manager, used to have a saying: “That is the bad road.” Well, pulling out that greenback sure seemed like the bad road alright. Rob happily accepted my $10 and my chips grew a wee bit. I kept playing as tight as a sumo wrestler’s mawashi.

We played through a progression of games … Follow the Queen, Five-Card double-draw, Baseball, Pass the Shit (their version off Pass the Trash), and more. I introduced them to Chase the Ace (really just Follow the Queen) and Control. I made jokes about Tonka’s pair of $25 decks that were so slick and new I could hardly hang on to them, forget shuffle them properly. My stack of chips again dwindled and I pulled another $10 from my wallet with a curse.

Then came the moment … Steve, who, with Tonka, was happily ahead hesitatingly asked, “You guys alright with some Acey-Ducey?”

A blossom of hope appeared in my heart. Acey-Ducey is probably the most dreaded of games for most poker players, either because it doesn’t remotely resemble poker or, moreover, because it can create terrifying pots. I’ve seen $30–$70 Acey-Ducey pots appear in nickel–dime–quarter games before. It’s the great equalizer—equally capable of turning poor players into rich or reducing sharks into mere minnows. A few lucky pulls and I would be back in business. Worse yet, these guys played the goalpost rule, meaning that hitting one of the bracketing cards with a similar card meant paying double your wager. Going for a large pot and striking the post was pretty much destruction for any player, or in my case, eating a Snickers Bar lunch for the next few days.

I went for broke, getting reasonable spreads and pulling the pot twice. Steve groaned and steadily threw away his chips into the center. Rob kept pulling sequential cards. And I kept winning. Soon the pot, fueled by numerous bad hands and crappy luck, had grown to a good 15 dollars. I drew a Queen–3. Not a great hand, but the best in a while. I wordlessly waved my hand over the pot and forced a grin on my face. Steve threw down my card with great deliberation … a 9. I was back baby!

Things progressed quickly after that, and fortunes changed. Tonka began throwing good money after bad and Rob, who had been ahead, was doing so poorly he now had to borrow money from me! Hoo-hah! God, life is great when your luck improves in poker. Steve continued to win hand after hand, and he seemed to be a wildcard loadstone, often having two wildcards showing on the table and being forced to bet low just to keep someone in. Rob found Steve winning so odd that he called it Bizarro World and, later, "a Twilight Zone episode in which Steve actually wins." Tonka was shaking his head and muttering in Turkish. Craziness. I bluffed one good hand, driving out Steve and Rob (both of which had high three-of-a-kinds) with my pair of 9s. Like I said, craziness.

Eventually came the vaunted best hand of the night (confirmed later unanimously). The game was Five Card, double draw, fours wild. I started brilliantly with two aces and a wildcard, not quite believing my luck. The bet was mine first and I went soft, as not to scare away what I felt would soon be easy pickings. Rob bet high, a bad sign. Steve instantly called him, another bad sign. Tolga matched and looked pleased. Uh oh. Still, three aces were three aces. I dumped my two garbage cards and received more garbage in return. The others exchanged one or two cards each. They looked even more pleased. Double uh oh. Still, three aces were three aces!
I gave two cards to the last exchange and Tonka flipped me two back. Rob took one. Steve took one. Tonk took one. I bet $4, one of my highest of the night, in an attempt to scare off these brigands. Rob immediately saw me and raised two fins. Steve, a wild gleam in his eye, raised that.
“How much is all that?” asked an exasperated Tonka.
“Eight dollars to you, I think,” replied Rob.
Tonka waged an inner battle and after a very long pause cursed and tossed his cards aside. “Call them, dammit!” he cried.
“You’re toast!” cried Steve, and threw down four Jacks with an Ace kicker.
“Not so fast,” cried Rob, stopping Steve’s hand as he reached for the pot, “get this—four Kings! Beat that!”
I held up a hand. Rob turned.
I dropped my cards on the table … two Aces and two (wild) 4s … four Aces.
“Aw SHIT!” yelled Rob.
Everyone screamed and laughed at that. Tonka’s new girlfriend(?) from upstairs, who had joined us in the meantime, nearly fell out off her chair. Tonka meanwhile, who I think had been clutching a straight, thanked the Almighty that he had ejected when he did. I raked in the loot, feeling like a million bucks.

We continued with more Seven Card and more Acey-Ducey (the second time wasn’t the charm for me) and I managed to get back the $20 I had hocked and turn the biggest profit of the night to boot. Steve won nearly as much. Rob and Tonka were down by roughly the same amount when the smoke cleared. How fortunes change!

I followed Steve and Rob to Steve’s car, when Steve realized he had left his keys behind.
“Oh man, Tonka’s gonna be pissed, he’s probably involved in something personal.” I ferried them back to the apartment, as Rob apologized to Tonk on his cell phone. Soon the keys were captured and we again headed out, me carefully following them as not to get lost. Suddenly, after about a mile, they pulled over. I slowly drew up next them, mindful of the still-busy near-midnight traffic. The window rolled down and they were in tears, hysterical.
“What’s the matter?” I asked.
“I forgot my keys!” Rob cried, and we all howled as that.

After that we separated, them heading back to the apartment again and me winding my lonely way toward Route 4.

Judo—a chop, chop, chop!

I think he means it.

Only in Manhattan.

Board Game Night Recap: Larry Commits Seppuku

Last night saw the gathering of the gentlemen for our monthly board game night. The game: Samurai Swords, the reprinting of Milton Bradley's excellent Shogun game. Both Samurai Swords and the nearly identical Shogun are difficult to find, and I was delighted to nab my then-sealed Samurai Swords game on ebay a few years ago.

Last night was techincally our first full-length game, excepting Schizohedron, who had some Shogun experience years ago.

Willie immediately set up shop on the Island of Shikoku and Schizo established a major power base on the larger island of Kyushu. Meanwhile Dom, Mark, and I landed the bulk of our troops on the "mainland" of Honshu—Dom to the west, me to the middle, and Mark to the south. Dom and Schizo also esatblished minor strongholds down south, as did Willie, and I claimed nearly all the small northern isles for my own.

The arrows flew fast and the initial combatants took much ground on Round One, leaving Mark—the last in line for combat—worrying just what he would have left to attack with come his turrn at bat (or at sword?). Willie attempted to rid Shikoku of my one-province presence. He attacked my province of Iyo, triggering the appearance of my hidden ronin, to which he responded by deploying ronin of his own! We know each other's tactics well it seems! A long battle resulted, and what should have been an easy task left Willie severely weakened and me no less for the wear, mainly due to a series of cursed rolls by the Willster. Willie swore revenge on me.
I then made good inroads on Honshu, marking me as an early leader. Schizo quickly consolidated his hold over Kyushu, taking 90% of the island and out-doing my own conquest. Dom meanwwhile stayed conservative and planted the first castle smack in the middle of Honshu. When Mark finally got his chance, he was reduced in forces but made some gains. Dom and Willie took losses in Honshu. No one hired the ninja this first turn.

The following turn saw more ronin deployment and multiple castles being built. Dom upgraded a castle into a fortress, a move that would prove wise down the road. I hired the ninja. Schizo gobbled up the rest of Kyushu while Willie, Mark, and I traded blows on the mainland. I cursed "stranding" some extra troops up on various islands. I had intended the tiny islands to be "fall-back bases"—places to where I could retreat if things went badly and not be eliminated from the game, but it was a mistake. I wasted koku on more ronin that were soon triggered but proved useless due to lame die rolls. Mark attacked multiple provinces and I responded by assassinating his daimyo with the ninja.

The third turn was Mark's last, as he had to leave the proceedings early. He attacked my army with his and I again assassinated his daimyo. He was so depressed his army was immobilized I let him attack anyway, a decision that left both our armies weakened. Schizo meanwhile made inroads into Honshu from the south, Willie spent every cent rebuilding his forces, and I placed my second castle down in the center of Honshu. We randomly distributed Mark's provines after his departure, trading out colors. Mark had been running a fairly successful game and we each gained a good 5 provinces. This effectively brought Willie back from the dead.

The next turn was momentous.
Willie hired the ninja and attempted an assassination on Dom's daimyo—a failure! Dom rolled for the ninja counter-attack and missed by one.
Dom ("Larry") then began two battles that nearly destroyed him. The first (against a castle I think) wiped out his first army group. The second battle saw him ignore a 1-spearman province held by Schizohedron and instead attack Willie's neighboring army head-to-head. Their rolls had all witnesses on the edge of their seats, as the dice mirrored each other: loss, loss, win, win, loss, loss, win, win. Every time Dom would score a hit Willie would return a balanced amount of damage, leaving their armies nearly equal at all times. Dom's daimyo now led two bowmen and Willie's daimyo led a bowman and gunner. We expected Dom to call for a cease fire, but no, he kept going! Soon only the two daimyos remained. Dom rolls a miss, immediately mirrored by Willie. I knew in my gut this would lead to a double-daimyo-death. Sure enough, when Dom finally rolled a hit Willie returned in kind! Boom—two armies destroyed. We were incredulous!

I continued the turn with the same self-destructive spirit, targeting Dom's fortress with my army. There was a method to my madness: I already had two nearby castles, and taking the fortress would yield me a solid line of castles across the neck of Honshu, potentially allowing me to push westward and eventually weaken Schizo's island stronghold without worrying about my rear. When the 5 ronin actually appeared on the table I thought about the odds and began to worry. Alas, the 5 ronin that joined Dom's spearmen did a number on my army. My skrimishers did some damage, but I soon was forced to retreat and the fortress remained in Dom's hands.

The end game saw a large push by Schizo north and west, including several successful naval assaults with large forces. He branched out from his island and even began a brave attack on castle territory. I ran rampant over Honshu. Dom and Willie took nibbles here and there. As the clock approached 3 am we decided on a 5 province margin to declare a victor. It looked like it would be Schizo or me, and we both had pushed our forces to the limit in an effort to take a maximum number of provinces. The end of the last turn saw Schizo easily win the game with some 27-odd provinces. I followed in Second and Dom and Willie were tied for Third Place. Meanwhile, Japan had seen so much warfare it looked as if Godzilla had taken a stroll. A good game enjoyed by all!